Council of Planning Librarians exchange bibliography
May 1972
285
COMMUNICATION INNOVATIONS, URBAN FORM AND TRAVEL
DEMAND: Some Hypotheses and a Bibliography
Richard C. Harkness
Urban Transportation Program
Departments of Urban Planning and Civil Engineering
University of Washington
Mrs. Mary Vance, Editor
Post Office Box 229
Monticello, Illinois 61856
MAY 15 ^97?
UN.VERSn^O..U.NO..
COUNCIL OF PLMNING LIBRARlAi^IS Sxchange Bibliography #28^
COM'iUl^ICATION IMOVATIOHS,
URBAN FOW. MD TRjWEL DJS'ikiTO
Some Hypotheses and a Bibliography
by
Richard C. Harkness
Urban Transportation Program
Departments of Urban Planning and Civil Engineering
University of Washington
- Seattle, Washington 98195
This report was produced as part of a Research and Trairdng
Program in Urban Transportation sponsored by the Urban Mass Trans-
portation Administration of the United States Department of Trans-
portation.
The results and views expressed are the independent products
of university research and are not necessarily concurred in by the
Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the Department of
Transportation.
TABLE OF COMTSrITS
Page
ABSTRACT 2
ACKNOVJLEDGEJ-EOTS 3
PART I
lOTRODUCTION h
DISCUSSION 6
MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTIONS l5
PART II
BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTES /UD ABBREVIATIONS 27
BIBLIOGRAPHIC CATEGORIES 28
BIBLIOGR/JHY
COMMUNICATIONS 29
EKFLOYl-IEOT ^°
LOCATION 51
TRANSPORTATION oO
URBAN °5
2. CPL Exchange Bibliography #265
;.£ST?.;.CT
Hypotheses are developed about the effects of teleeoBnunl ca-
tions advances on urban growth patterns and xirban travel denaads.
It is suggested that CBD office enqployment might decentralize if
telecomiminications co\ild effectively substitute for short inter-
office business trips and that job decentralization wcwld alter
journey- to-viork patterns and the viability of certain public tran-
sit systems. Kajor research questions are raised and keyed to an
extensive bibliography.
3* CPL Exchange Bibliography /;'285
ACITNOVJLSDGSI^SHTS
The author is indebted to the Boeing Compare'-, whose continued
interest and support has made this research possible, and to the
members of his doctoral coiranittee: Doctors Edward Wank, Jr.
(Chairman), Virgil 2. Harder, Richard A. Johnson, Thomas P. Rona,
and Jerry B. Schneider for their guidance and encouragement.
In addition, the author greatly appreciates the generosity of
Dr. Alex Reid, of the Communications Study Group at the Joint Unit
for Planning Research, London, for making available a large number
of excellent references during the author's recent ijorking visit.
Mr. Robert Hall, of the Location of Offices Bureau, also provided
many useful references and his help is gratefully acknowledged.
Finally, the author appreciates the assistance of Dorothy
Linder, Barbara Hehr and Joyce O'Brien in preparing this publica-
tion.
U* CPL Exchange idbliogrephy p2fc5
P/P.T I
rrrRcujCTio:?
Advances in teleccraroinications have been so rapid, so poverf"al
and so iddespread that their irpact on society has teen called a
revolution — the coranuni cations revolution. V.'ith CATV, pdcture-
phone, rapid facsimile, and nev? data netvorks on the near horizon
this revolution is sweeping in, inexorably, and with increasing
power.
A question that has received niuch speculation and alnost no
substantive research is that of technology impact or tecm«)logy
assessment, VJhat i-dll be the effects of drastically reducing the
cost and effort of coranunication on social processes, political
processes, the conduct of business, the urban fom, and on travel?
One speculation found often in the literature is that radically
improved communications nay substitute for inter-office biisiness
trips and thus weaken the ties that bind office er^Jloynent to the
center cities. The general result vould be a more dispersed urban
form, perhaps in the pattern of Los Angeles but even less dense.
It has also been suggested that people right vork at hone and tele-
commute to work from closed circuit TV consoles. The office right
cease to exist except as a switchboard and electronic data bank
tucked away in any convenient location.
The implications of such a dispersal vould be of the utmost
importance to ui'ban planners, transportation agencies, property
owners, and the general public. The purpose of this report is to
discuss some hypotheses on connuni cations iji5)act, outline the major
$. CPL Exchange Bibliography j'2Q$
research questions, and present a fairly extensive bibliography
with the hope that it may stimulate others to conduct investigations
in this inportant area.
6. CPL Zxch£inge ELbl:.' .,_
Discussiai
The concept of substituting ccmunications for transportation
is not a new one. Zver since man began using signal fires or >rrit-
ing letters communications has been substituted for travel. The
telegraph and telephone have provided real-time corrunicaticn and
it is difficult to imagine hov many trips they have saved. Never-
theless, it is almost impossible to imagine hcv any electronic
communications channel could be substituted for many social or
recreational trips or hov; it could be substituted for a patient's
trip to the hospital. Hovever, vrhat we are concerned vlth here is
the large number of business trips that are made in order to con-
duct face-to-face discussions and to work over various written or
graphic material. These trips do not require any phj-sical contact
between participants. Both intuition and some actiial experinents
suggest that two-v/ay television and facsimile should suffice in
many cases. There is also the possibility that advanced audio con-
ferencing might be quite effective and be far less e:q)ensive than
two-v;ay video. The question is not whether teleconferencing is
better than face-to-face, but rather whether its advantages out-
v;eigh its disadvantages. For excrple, teleconferences eliminate
travel time and e^ense, allow faster inf crr.stion turnaround and
decision making, more short vinschediled meetings, more Iccational
freedom, and probably use less material and energy resoxirees.
Therefore, what appears to be emerging is a ccr.petition bet-
ween eoirjminications and transportation facilities for servicing
the large number of contacts that now require travel but which
7. GPL Exchange Bibliography ,f285
might possibly be made electronically. Planners are interested
in the modal split between travel and teleconferencing, in other
words the relative percentage of all contacts that use each mode.
They are interested in forecasting the shift of this modal split
over the next twenty years. Certainly any improvements in trans-
port will tend to increase its share j however, it appears that com-
munication services can be extended and improved more readily than
can transport services since communications facilities have low
visibility and are largely controlled by private firms whereas
transport facilities are highly visible, controversial, and depen-
dent on a public-political decision-making process for iir^^lementa-
tion. Therefore it is probable that corrmuni cations xnll tend to
improve faster than transport and a relative shift from real travel
to tele-travel should result.
VJe cajinot assume that if communications can be effectively
substituted for certain trips that it i-dll reduce the absolute
level of demand for travel. The absolute growth in the number of
contacts may be enough to offset any trips lost by a shift in the
modal split share. For example, the growth in social and recrea-
tional travel could greatly exceed arQr loss of business travel.
Finally, there is the possibility that communication may stimulate
travel and vice versa. Usually telephone calls precede a meeting
and the meeting itself provides topics for further communication.
This argument has been used to disclaim the threat vrhich telecom-
munications might pose to the transportation industryj however,
its validity remains to be proved, l-ieetings do beget contacts.
8. CPL Ejcchange filtliogrephy #28$
but Is it necessary that the meetings involve travel? V*o\ild not a
teleccnference be as effective aa a face-to-face meeting in stin-
ulating new contacts? y.nd might not telephone calls lead to tele-
conferences rather than trips?
There are other questions that arise concerning the iapact of
telecommunications of \irban form and travel. Perhaps the questions
of impact should be explored even before ve delve into the problen
of how effective telecommunications could be as a substitute for
face-to-face meetings. If no significant impact could be foreseen,
then the question of substitution is only of academic interest to
the urban planner.
Let us assume na\.r that telecommunications does turn out to be
a viable alternative to business travel in mzixy cases. How right
this affect the fut\ire of our cities? V'e recognize that the pre-
sent size and shape of cities and the location of activities with-
in the cities is largely the result of individual location deci-
sions. The "conprehensive plans" that are intended to shape urban
development lack teeth and are largely ineffective; thus the evolu-
tion of the urban form simply reflects an aggregation of individual,
self-serving location decisions. Certainly zoning, taxes, trans-
portation, topography, and other factors influence and constrain
individual location choices but there is still considerable freedon
for the individual office or factory to take advantage of new tech-
nologies and locate where it sees fit. The irportant point is that
highly effective ccanmuni cations systems maj' provide new location
opportunities, activities nay seize these cpport unities, and a new
9. GPL Exchange Bibliography ,v285
urban form may emerge td-thout any overall policy guidance. This
new urban form may render transportation systems and plans obso-
lete, may conflict id.th desired land use policy as expressed in
comprehensive plans, may radically alter property values and may
create a new pseudo-urban life stj^'le. The implication for planners
is clear. If they cannot stall the communications revolution, if
they cannot control location decisions, then they should attempt
to understand this phenomenon, predict its likely impact and re-
structure their plans accordingly. In particular, plans calling
for high capacity, radial rapid rail transit systems should be re-
evaluated in light of a possible decentralization of expected
downtown office groTith,
On the other hand, communications technology could be viewed
as a new tool for shaping urban development. Just like transpor-
tation, communications could be provided to certain areas to en-
courage employment grorth. Dr. Peter Goldmark, former president
of CBS Labs, plans such a positive application of technology in
Connecticut. In his HUD-funded "city of the future" program, ad-
vanced telecommunications would be used to enable certain office
functions to move from a crowded coastal city to rural Connecticut
while still maintaining close contact vrith the head office.
The above impacts have dealt xdth land use. It is also poss-
ible to look at the impact of ecom (electronics communications) on
long distance business travel. The British Post Office recently
opened thoir intercity, closed circuit, COLIFRAVISION studios for
business. Jayy groups wishing to hold a remote conference, saj"
10. CPL Exchange Bitliogr^hy #285
between London and Glasgov;, sirply make an appointxaent, go to the
respective studios, and sit before the car^ra vhile vieving their
coiinterparts on a standard television monitor. General £lectric
offers a somewhat similar send.ce called the "Coinnand FerforBanoe
Netv?ork" in the United States altho\igh theirs is a nore expensive,
customized, large screen ser^ce. In a local context, the Hew York
Metropolitan Regional Council plsns to have a closed circ\iit T7
system connecting government offices in seven comunities around
ilevj York, The stated purpose of their system is to elirdnate tiroe-
consuming travel for officials and increase the efficiency of con-
munication and decision making.
There is also the ver;' real prospect of remote shopping which
would utilize the tv;o-way capability being built into most new
cable TV networks. In the simpler systems the housewife would
vjatch a channel or channels devoted to displaying and describing
various products. Upon seeing a desired product she would press a
button on the TV and her order vould be recorded and subsequently
delivered. If rddely adopted, remote shopping could reverse the
present trend in paving over great suburban ejqjanees for shcppir.g
center parking lots and could also reduce off-peak auto usa^.
The above list of technology ir^sacts could be greatly extend-
ed. The possibilities which can be envisioned in a few Kinutes
are exciting aixi sometimes frightening. It is apparent that great
changes could be caused in travel demand patterns, in locational
behavior, and in every activity that involves ccnninicaticn. Sone
industries wo\0.d stagnate v^uJLe others would flourish. Sone per-
sons would profit while others ifould suffer losses. The onl^' con-
stant \>dll be change.
11. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
From the spectrum of possibilities, the author has chosen to
examine only the impact of telecom advances on urban form and
travel demands. The folloidng paragraphs are limited to that
topic.
Aside from historic needs for defense, the city has emerged
as the appropriate spatial framework for an economy based on a
specialization of labor and production. Advances in art, science,
technology and production all require increased specialization.
Thus we can expect increased specialization and subsequent growth
in the communication and goods exchange required to support it.
Thus the need for a functional city will continue. X-Jhat then is
the future spatial city?
Many geographers have traced the evolution of cities and not-
ed how transport technology has been a key determinant of their
growth patterns. By comparing the densities of older downtox-m
neighborhoods x-jith today's low density suburbs, it becomes appar-
ent that improvements in transport per se have not caused disper-
sion directly - rather they have reduced the relative inportance
of transport costs as a locational constraint. Other factors, such
as the desire for suburban living, have therefore gained dominance
and caused decentralization.
Similarly, communications innovations may loosen the bonds
that still tie some activities to the center cities, and previous-
ly repressed locational desires may gain prominence and dictate
nevr patterns. In particular the office activity is a prime candi-
date for decentralization. Offices are bound together because they
12. CPL Exchange bibliography #28$
are conunLinication-intensive activities. There is laich need for
rapid, face-to-face contact between a >7ide variety of office work-
ers. Office firms, especially sr.all ones, also rely heavily on
the "external econonles" of e^ert consiiltants, e.g. lawyers,
accountants, and printers. Vhat about other types of urban en-
ployment?
Manufacturing and wholesaling are much less dependent on eam-
munication. They depend heavily on transport facilities but in-
creasingly the best transport service utilizes trucks and freeways
rather than railroads and waterways. Thus, vdth the nearly ubiq-ji-
tous availability of good road transport facilities, trar^ort per
se has become less constraining and other location factors, nota-
bly space for expansion and cheap land, have gained dceiLnance.
The result has been significant long-term decentralization of nanu-
facturing and warehousing. Retail sales were once concentrated
downtovm but for sometime their grovrth has largely' gene to the sub-
urbs in pursuit of the customers.
In summary, the future of the central business district will
depend largely on its ability to hold and attract new office er.-
ployment, an ability vrhich is being eroded on several fronts. In
the first instance central cities have detractions. Recent artic-
les have mentioned the scarcity of honest, industrious labor, the
high rents, air pollution and noise. 2rployees fear crime in the
streets and grow tired of long commutes. Traffic congestion grows
worse because inner city residents naturally rebel against nev
freeways dividing their neighborhoods, and such facilities are
enormously expensive.
13. CPL Exchange Bibliography //285
The result is that offices have been moving from the CBD to
suburban areas in increasing numbers. It has been reported that
three-quarters of the top 2C0 firms in Manhattan are considering
moving out. Often when a firm cannot move entirely and still main-
tain vital contacts, it vdll decentralize its routine functions.
Those functions with little need for face-to-face contact, notably
accounting, bookkeeping, and data processing, are moved to the sub-
urbs leaving only the top executives and their personal staffs
downtown. ..,..•.
With the xd.despread availability of closed circuit television
and rapid fascimile, it may be possible to conduct most meetings
electronically. Therefore, it seems intuitively clear that advanc-
es in communications viill facilitate such decentralization, both
for entire organizations and functional units. An exception could
be the delicate negotiations between top executives which may defy
substitution. Even if their contacts could be substituted, these
persons may have other reasons for remaining doxmtown. Until a
persuasive argument is made to the contrary, the prudent forecast-
er should assume that top executives will remain downtown even
though professionals, clerks and operating departments may decen-
tralize. The timing of possible decentralization is dependent on
the fact that sophisticated telecom systems will not be available
for some time nor can the office tenants break their leases and
abandon the CBD overnight. The overall hypothesis is that the
rate of downtown office grovrbh will continue to decline gradually
over the next 10 to 20 years as communications advances become more
lU. CPL Exchange Htliography #285
readily available. Eventually, the absolute level of CBD et^lay-
ment may fall; this trend vrould be reflected by increased vacancy
rates in the older, less desirable bijildings.
These predictions contradict the official forecasts in sore
cities for extensive CBD office growth and are significant because
transport decisions are often nade on the basis of this expected
grov;th. Failure to achieve that grovrth vould resiilt in under-
utilization and huge operating deflcites for conventional public
transit.
The planner's problem is to test the above hj-pctheses in scoe
rigorous manner in order to avoid making major errors in transport
and other public facility investment decisions and in order to
guide development into socially desirable configurations.
The purpose of this document so far has been to suggest vhy
investigation of the potential for substituting ccritiuni cations for
transportation should be important to urban planners, and to dis-
cuss some preliminary hypotheses. The follovlng sections will
outline some of the major research questions, and present a working
bibliography of some relevant literature. The bibliography itself
is organized into a number of subject categories. In the paragraphs
belov; the major research question will be raised and keyed to these
categories.
15. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
SOME I-iAJOR RSSSivRCH QUESTIONS
1. The City
uTiat forces determine the spatial distribution of activities
in the urban area? Ihat are the current distributions of em-
ployment "by type and what have been the trends?
The acadeirdc field most applicable here is urban geography
and some typical authors are Hoover and Vernon (LU 118),
Wingo (UF 9) and Rodvin (LT 52). The bibliographic categories
are "location theory (LT)", "location-urban form (LU)", and
"urban form (UF)".
Previous work in urban geography has identified in a qua-
litative sense many of the forces determining urban form. The
locational determinants for manufacturing, warehousing, and
retail sales activities have been the subject of predictive
and normative quantitative models. These models have been
developed in a sub-field called "location theory" which is
shared by urban geographers, business administrators, and econ-
omists.
Unlike population, good empirical data on employment dis-
tribution has been hard to find. We really do not know where
the jobs are vjith much accuracy nor do we have good breakdowns
by occupation, income and so forth. Available labor statis-
tics are often disaggregated from regional or state totals
rather than aggregated up from the census tract level. For-
tunately, place of work data has been gathered by the 1970
Census of Population for the first time.
16. CPL 2xchange Bibliography #265
2. Office ZrTplo:/r^nt end Location
llnat is the amount and location of office esflajustit by occu-
pation, income, etc? Vhat are the determnants of office
location? Can future office location be predicted?
;.3 above, office employment data has been difficult to
obtain but the 1570 census should help imnensely. Bibliogr^-
hic categories are "erployTnent, office (ZO)", and "land use
(LU)."
Office location theory is almost unexplored territory.
I'ost work in this field has been descriptive and analysis has
been generally limited to the identification of locational cri-
teria. No quantitative models have been developed to the
author's knowledge, although the CoEJnunications Study Grocp of
the JUPR in London is vorking on the problem. References in-
clude Fye (LT U8) and Goddard (LC 15 and LC 16).
3. Office Contact Patterns
What are the communication and face-to-face contact require-
ments of office activities and personnel?
jilthough the ir5)ortance of face-to-face contact as a
factor binding office activities to the CBD has often been
mentioned, there have been surprisingly fev espirical studies
of these contacts. Some exceptions are: Goddard {LC 17),
Tornquist (LC 28), Warneryd (LC 30), Thorngren (LC 27) and
Reid (LC 2l4). The bibliographic category for contact studies
is "location, contacts (LC)" acd "comuni cations, business
(CB)".
17. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
Most of the eirpirical work has consisted of having every
eiriployee in a given organization record all his trips in a
"contact diary". In addition the length, destination, purpose
and other details are recorded for a small sairiple of all con-
tacts. With this data it is possible to quantitatively des-
cribe the organizations contact requirements and speculate
about the types and capacity of telecommunications substitu-
tes. Ultimately this type of data should allovj for the design
of telecommunications substitutes in the same way Origin-
Destination Surveys provide an empirical base for making fore-
casts of future travel demands.
I4. Telecommunications Systems
liTiat are the various telecommunications terminals and networks
that would be required to support ididespread substitution?
How could these evolve from existing systems such as the tele-
phone systems, data networks and cable TV? What are the key
technological advances needed for lower costs and better per-
formance? What cost and performance levels seem possible in
the next 20 years?
Relevant bibliographic categories are: "communication
hardware (CH)" and "coirmunication netxirorks (GIJ)."
The above questions have not been systematically consid-
ered from the viewpoint of assessing substitution possibilities.
However, there are numerous terminal devices and transmission
systems in operation and in various stages of development about
vjhich data is available. A recent book by Martin provides an
18. CPL Exchange Eiblicgraphy #265
excellent, serd-technical overview of these technologies (C 12),
The report on the use of electronic transndssion devices by
the U.S. Postal Service by General Dynardcs also pro'/i.dez nuch
useful data on facsimile devices and transicission networics
(CH 66).
The three basic services that teleconfeiencing terminals
may provide are real time audio, facsimile, and real tine or
low frame rate video. These basic services include nany vari-
ations such as high fidelity sound or large screen T!. The
fundamental engineering problem is to design a teleconference
facility that is convenient and natural to use vithin the
constraints of technological feasibility ar^ reasonable cost.
The multilocation video conference is a decided challenge in
this respect.
Network technologies include telephone lines, modified
telephone lines (as used for Picturephone), coaxial cables,
millimeter wave guides, microwaves, fibre optics, non-coherent
light beams and laser beams. In addition to the technology
there is the question of ovnership. Till the future telecon-
ference system grow out of the Bell Telephone system, the data
networks like DATRAI^, or from cable TV?
5. ^ffoctivonoss of Communications Substitutes for raco-tc-Fgee
Contacts
How effective are various types of teleccrimini cations systems
as substitutes for face-to-face contacts in terns of accurate
and efficient transfer of information, emotions, iryressions,
etc.?
19. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
Bibliographic categories are: "coranunication, psycholog-
ical aspects (CP)" and "communications, substitution (CS)".
This area is almost totally unexplored vith the notable
exception of Reid's Communication Study Group at the Joint
Unit for Planning Research in London (CP 11^2, CS 186, l87,
188, 189, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, and 212). Bell Telephone
Laboratories in Holmdale, Hew Jersey has also done extensive
hardware development work on both Picturephone and closed
circuit T.V. teleconferencing. Unfortunately, little of this
information has been published (CP 138). A search of the
literature in psychology reveals some material on the value of
non-verbal communication but nothing where media are compared
for effectiveness. E^qperiences vd.th educational television
may also be helpfiilj see for example CP lii3.
Pi.esearch in this area has consisted largely of laboratory
experiments where subjects are asked to discuss, negotiate and
solve problems using different modes of communication such as
face-to-face, telephone, and closed circuit T.V. Iledia effects
are isolated and refined in subsequent experiments. The Com-
munications Study Group is also conducting several field trails
of different teleconference systems,
6. Personal Attitudes Tov;ard Travel
VJhat are the personal reasons for desiring or not desiring
travel as perceived by various persons in various situations?
How influential might these factors be when an individual
chooses between teleconferencing and travel?
20. CPL ::xchsnge Eiblicgraphy #285
It has been suggested that travel is often dedrccle for
a change in pace, time to relax, opportunity for sightseeir^,
and expense accoxint living. On the other hand travel is often
tiresome, scenery repetitious , and it separates the business-
man from his family. Before vre can estimate the prctability of
substitution, these personal factors night be assessed.
The author has not yet searched for previc\is research on
this topic, therefore no materials are included in the biblio-
graphy, .'ji anonymous questionnaire survey of travelers Ki^t
be an appropriate research approach.
7. Benefits and Costs of oubstitution
lihat are the economic and non-econoric tradeoffs betveen tele-
conferencing and travel as seen by the erploying orgardzaticn?
Bibliographic refei*ences are fo'ond under "ccmunication,
substitution (CS)", and "cormini cation networks (CN)".
liost organizations vrill ultimately adept a policy tabard
the uJse of teleconferencing and travel. Pres\inably this policy
^dill be based on a corparison of the various benefits and costs
of both modes. Perhaps the best way to estimate future substi-
tution and relocation vrould be to postulate it as an alternative
course of action for a number of typical organizations, evalu-
ate the alternatives, and estimate the likely decision.
Hard data on the benefits and costs of futuire substitution
are of course impossible to obtain, ^ieither the hardware re-
quirements nor the hardware costs are known. ?}evertheless,
21. GPL 3xchange Bibliography #28^
technological forecasts can be attempted of probable future
user costs for various audio, facsimile and video services.
These can be compared vjitii travel costs and value-of-time esti-
mates. Mscellaneous cost data can be discovered in the com-
munications technology literature but the author is aware of
only two actual cost comparisons (CS 199, 200 and CS 210) .
8. Probability of Office Decentralization
Does it seem likely that office activities TdJ.1 choose to sub-
stitute telecom for intra-CBD business travel and move to sub-
urban locations? If offices relocate they will decrease the
need for supporting activities such as lunch counters in the
CBD| can the net change in total CBD employment be estimated
if "X" office workers decentralize? Relevant material is
found under: "location theory (LT)", "communications substi-
tution (CS)", "transport and urban form (TU)", and "employment
multiplier (SM)".
In response to the new telecommunications services the
typical CBD office has several options:
1) Does not use telecom substitutes and remains in pre-
sent CBD location.
2) Uses telecom substitutes but remains in present CBD
location.
3) Does not use telecom but moves to a non-CBD location.
h) Uses telecom substitutes and moves to non-CBD loca-
tion.
5) Uses some telecom substitutes and decentralizes some
functions or departments.
22. CPL Exchange Bibliographar #28$
One approach for analyzing these possitillti^s is to con-
struct scgnarios of each option for a given firr.. 7:.;.-. i
benefit/cost coirparison of each scenario would be made and the
firm's probable response estimated. Three problems with this
approach are: 1) actual managerial location decisions may
bear little relation to vihat the benefit/cost anal/sis indica-
tes is best; 2) most needed data is uncvailablej 3) each fim
may be so vinique that results can not be generalized.
In spite of these pitfalls this systematic approach should
be educational, help to identify data needs, axid perhaps give
some useful res\ilts if the options have overvhelminglj' large
benefit/cost differences that would cancel data errors.
The benefit/cost approach is being used by the British
Government in a large operations research project which would
guide the relocation of some government offices frcr. over-
crovrded London. Little has been published about this "Loca-
tion of Government" project (SR 21) .
A second approach might be to develop an office location
model based on historic location behavior and which was sensi-
tive to contact costs. If the iirportanee of contact costs in
previous location decisions could be quantified then perhaps
future costs (not sinply economic costs but including also
measures of communications effectiveness) for advanced tele-
conference systems could be estimated and their influence on
location forecast. This approach is similar to the ncdal
split model used by transportation planners in that it would
23. CPL Exchange Bibliography ?;'285
employ correlations based on observation of past behavior
rather than a true understanding of all reasons for that be-
havior. Just as conventional modal split models probably vill
not be valid for truly innovative transport systems, so also
might this approach fail for advanced communications systems.
9. Job Decentralization and Travel Demand
Vihat effect would job decentralization have on urban transpor-
tation demands? Would the need for new freevTays or rapid
transit be altered? ¥hat types of transportation systems
would be most appropriate for a decentralized city?
Bibliographic categories are: "transport evaluation {T2)" ,
"transport models (TM)", "transport and urban form (TU)",
"transport and journey-to-work (TIJ)", and to a lesser extent:
"errployment relocation (ER)", and "urban form (UF)".
Work has been done on decentralization and the journey-
to-work by Peter Daniels at the University of Liverpool and by
the Location of Offices Bureau in London. (TO 37, TW h3, and
ER 18 and 29).
In addition, many urban areas have conducted transporta-
tion studies in which alternate land use patterns were evalu-
ated. These may have some useful data although detailed study
would be needed to determine whether the models accurately
show the relation between land use changes and network demand
changes. The use of a "gravity distribution" instead of one
based primarily on "intervening opportunities" is questionable.
2U. CPL Exchange Bibliography ^BS
A sensitive "capacity restraint" progrsn is also needed to de-
tect v/hen new facilities are needed, but capacity restraint
techniques are generally coarse.
From the lindted data now available, sorae of which is
based on questionable assumption or model techniques, it ap-
pears this problem has not been solved. \.e don't quantitative-
ly understand the relation between urban decentralization ard
travel demands in terms of pattern, mode and trip length.
One obvious approach is to postulate a dispersed job pat-
tern for some city, rerun the network r.odels and observe the
forecast demands. This should be done only after modifj'ing
the distribution, capacity restraint and other programs as
necessary.
A second approach is to look at the changes in the travel
habit of workers whose firms have actually left the CED. The
English studies have done this. They show that the percent
using transit drops for decentralized workers, trip length nay
increase slightly or decrease considerably depending on whether
the firm moves to the suburbs or to a distant snail town and
trip patterns obviously change from radially oriented to dis-
perse.
The inplications of dispersion ai^ that either the auto-
mobile, bus or a low line cspacity, diverse network systen
like Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) would be most appropriate.
25. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
10. Social Benefits and Costs of Decentralization
I'Jhat would be the overall benefits and costs to society of a
more dispersed urban form supported by telecommunications as
opposed to the somewhat more concentrated one likely without
telecommunications substitution? Based on the above, what
are the appropriate policies for concerned government agencies
such as the Departments of Transportation, Housing and Urban
Development, and Commerce (FCC)?
Bibliographic categories "commiinication revolution (CR)",
"transportation evaluation (2T)", and "urban planning (UP)",
may contain some relevant materials although the author is
not aware of any significant work focused on these questions.
With major decisions being made daily on freeways and rapid
transit, policy research on decentralization and telecommuni-
cations is both timely and necessary.
One primary benefit of job decentralization (to small
office parks or suburban centers) is that workers could re-
side closer to their jobs. Other benefits would be to avoid
the cost and neighborhood disruption of building additional
transport facilities serving the CBD, and to decrease nation-
al consuirption of a limited resource namely, gasoline.
On the debit side, decentralization may not automatically
induce shorter work trips. Much depends on where the jobs go
and whether or not workers move their homes. Carried too far,
decentralization could lower CBD property values, tax receipts
and the economic viability of existing transit systems.
26. CFL Exchange BLhllograftj #285
The above list of benefits and costs treat only a srall
aspect of the coirmunications revolution. Yet their dinen-
sions are staggering since the United states presently spends
about twenty percent of its gross national prod'oct on trar.s-
portation and 236 ndllion people are expected to live in o\ir
urban areas by the year 2000. Our major planning deficiency
lies in not understanding the ccrmunications revolution nor
in how to direct it for the naxLinuin good. A ccrprehensive
technology assessment is clearly needed.
27. CPL Exchange Bibliography #285
PiLRT II :;
BIBLIOGRAPHIC llOTIS SMI) /iBBREVlATIONS
1. Entries appear only once although they may include material
vjhich relates to more than one "Bibliographic Category".
2. Abbreviations used in the enteries are:
NTIS - National Technical Information Service j U.S. Department
of Commerce, Springfield, Virginia 221^1 .
JUPR - Joint Unit for Planning Research, University College
London/London School of Economics, 172 Tottingham Court
Road, London. I'lP.
CSG - Communications Study Group. A group -within the JUPR
under the direction of Alex Reid.
28. CPL Exchange BitHogrspiiy #285
BIELICGR/i'HIC C;.TZX?JZ3
C - C onTTuni c ati ons , general and rise.
CA - ;.ppli cations, £:d.3ting
C/J- /.pplications. Futuristic
CB - C orjraini c ati one, Business
CH - Hardware, innovative terrdnal devices
ClI - ilotv'orks and Tr&nsnission 3yster.3
CP - Psychological ,.spects of Substitution
CR - Ccrjnuni cation ^.evolution, broad social irplicationa
CS - Substitution of Telecon for Travel
S - SiTiglo^Tient, general and ndsc,
ETl - ^■aiployment Kultiplier, ratio of office ;rcrkers to
supporting services
EO - Offices
3R - Smployment Relocation^ dispersal
L - Location of Urban ;ctivities, general and rise.
LC - Contact Patterns, business travel
LT - Location Theory, predictive and normative
LU - Location and Urban Fom, erperical survey data, and
descriptions
T - Transportation, general and ndsc.
T3 - Svaluation (benefit and cost) and Policy
Tl'I - liodels £nd Planning Techniques
TS - Studies, for actual cities
TU - Transport and Urban Fon-i, interaction of
TV - Journey to Vork
U - Urban, general and misc.
UF - Urban Form, theories and descriptions
UIJ - New ToAms
UP - Urban Planning, theory and techniques
29. CPL Exchange Bibliography #28^
CCTIMUNICATIONS (C)
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2 Colston Research Society Syinposiuin 21st, held March 2li-28,
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23 p^, (ASTIC 1068Uli). •
3 Committee on Public Sngineering Policy, National Academy of
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ment Printing Office, Washington, D.C., July 1969.
k "Communications." Time, September 6, 1968, p. 85.
$ CovTan, Peter. "Communications," Urban Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3,
1969.
6 CSG, The use of telecommunications in a relocation study, CSG,
JUPR, London. Contains:
a) C/70317/PY Eff'^ct' of substitution en soimunicaticns
damage .
b) W/7032U/RD Measure of communications damage.
c) W/7033Ui^D Report of December 7th meeting.
d) C/7IO36/PY Effect of substitution and measure of
commiinications damage.
7 Deutsch, Karl VJ. "On Social Communications and the Metro-
polis," Communication and Culture, Hult, Rinehart &
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8 Ferkiss, Victor C. Technological Man: The Myth and the
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9 Hmelar, Stephen!. "The Information Age," Eascon '70 Record
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10 Institute for Communication Research, .Stanford University,
Educational Television, The Next Ten Years, Stanford,
California, 1962.
. *<-. . ' . ..- ■
11 Kahn, Herman and Anthony J. l.einer. The Year 2000— A Frame-
work for Speculations, The Hudson Institute, New York,
mimeo.
30. CPL Zzchci^e Bibliography #285
12 Martin, James. Futui-e Developnents in Telecccrainications,
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13 Meier, Richard L. 'The Hetrcpolis as a Transaction y^axLrlzir-r;
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Ill Metropolitan Fund, Inc. Regional Urban Comunicaticns,
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15 Schramm, V/ilbur. "Information Theory and Mass CcKTrvirdcation,"
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16 "The TV Netv;orks Shrug off Hew Corpetition." Business Veek,
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17 V/eaver, V/arren. "The Mathematics of Communication,'' Cornun-
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V.lnston, New York, New York, 1966.
18 Ueisman, Herman. "Spectrum of Communications," Prcceedincs
of the 1965 Institute in Technical and Ind'astrial Ccnrr^'l-
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19 Weisman, Herman. "Exhibit B, Current Sources of R & D in the
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CCHIUI'IICATICN, APPLICATICI!S. ZiaSTING (CA)
20 "Command Performance Network.'' (Ercchure (CED-23A) describing
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21 Confravision, (promotional brochure), Teleccmunications
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22 Granger, S.H. "Pilot Scheme for a K\ilti -Purpose Local Ket-
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23 Granger, S.H. Post Office V'ideband Distribution Network at
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Ik Mandelbaum, S. Description of COIiI'TIilT, a New ConiTOuni cations
System for North Central Philadelphia^ Center for Urban
Research and S:q)eidment, University of Pennsylvania, 1.So9 ,
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2$ Perraton, H.D., D.A.L. Wade and J.W.R. Fox. Linking Univer-
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Party on Inter-University Communication by the Inter-
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26 Sistrunk, F. "Review of Teleconferencing Applications in Use
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27 Telediagnosis: A New Msj to Deliver Medical Care, (brochure)
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28 Ayers, S.W. Possibilities for Integrated Customer Telecommuni-
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29 British Post Office, Long Range Planning Division. Telecom-
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30 Fano, R.M. "The Computer Utility and the Community," 1967
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31 Foundation 70. The Third Wire; Cable Comraunications Enters
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32 Livesey, Roger. "Communications 50 years from now," Engineer-
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33 Philadelphia City Planning Commission. Telecommunications
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3U Singer, /irthur L., Jr. Issues for Study in Cable Communica-
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3p Smith, Ralph L. "The Wired Nation," The Nation, May 18, 1970,
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32. CPL Sxchaxige Eibliograiijy #285
36 "The Room-Size World." Tine, Y.a-j lu, 15^5, p. 5U.
37 "The Secretarial Coitworker." Pusiness Zyster-, ieptenber 1571.
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U9 "Municipal Television Service," (Promotional Brochure).
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$Q Overhage, Carl F.J. and R. Joyce Haman. "The On-Line Intel-
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^1 Pettit, Joseph M. and Donald J. Grace. "The Stanford Instruc-
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52 Stryker, Perrin. "The Subtleties of Delegation," Fortune,
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$3 Thayer, Lee. Communication and Coiranuni cation Systems in Or-
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$k Uddenberg, R.C. "Boeing-Tie Management Techniques," Boeing
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55 Andrews, F.T., Jr. and H.Z. Hardaway. "Connecting the Custo-
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56 Andrews, H.G. and W.K. Pratt. "Television Bandid.dth Reduction
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57 Atwood, John ¥. "CATV in the 70' s: A Challenge for Informa-
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58 Beltrami, ^lurelio and Virgilio Mosca. "High-Speed Visual
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59 Cherry, Colin et al. "An E:!q3erimental Study of the Possible
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66 General DynanLcs, Study of :j.ectronic HarHUng of Kail, Com-
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/iD 715 117 Potentially .-.pplicable Zc-lpnent
AD 715 118 Collecticn ar.d Listributicn
AD 715 115 Conversion
i\D 715 120 Cv-itcr-in^
AD 715 121 Tran3rl3Licn Kethods
/D 715 122 Zxperimental Laboratory ZQuip?qent
AD 715 123 Laboratory Design
aD 715 12U Value/Sancity
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150 Short, John. Cooperation and Coripetition in an Experinental
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151 Sumby, V/.H. and I. Pollack. "Visual Contribution to Speech
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152 Thompson, D.F. and L. Meltzer. ''Coraiiunication of ^inotional
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155 Bagdikian, Be. "How much more ccrarainication can ve stand?",
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157 Busignies, Henri. Trends and Future of Telecomriunications,
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158 Collin, Cherry. "The communication revolution," "Living
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159 d'Arcy, Jean. "Challenge to Cooperation: Toward a Global
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160 de Sola Pool, Inthiel. (Section on the effect of the communi-
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161 Fabun, D. ed. The Dynamics of Change, Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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162 Field, Roger K. "Here comes the tuned-in, wired-up, plugged-
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163 Hult, J.L. "The Promise of UHF Satellites for Mobile, Broad-
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165 Johnson, Fdcholas. "Urban Man and the Communications Revolu-
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166 Licklider, J.C.R. and Roger W. Taylor. (Section on the com-
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167 liichelson, Sig. "The First Sight Years: Toward a Global
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168 "The Revolution in the Phone Business," Special Report,
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169 Science & Technology, April I968. (Entire issue is devoted
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170 The 2l3t Century ^ Bell Telephone Laboratories. (Transcript
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171 Thompson, Gordon B. "The greening of the Vired City,"
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172 l/arters, V.'.D. "Ccminunlcationo of the Future," I.Z..Z.Z. Stu-
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173 V/eiss, 5.B. "; Revolution in Cormunication - Part IH,"
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17li Wood, Robert C. "Science: The Good Urban V itch," reprinted
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175 Abler, R. Substitutetility of Cornurdcaticns for rrcr-spcrte-
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176 Bailey, Gerald C, P.G, Wordlie and F. Sistruch. Teleconfer-
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177 Calame, P., B. Matalon and G. liercadal. Contributi?.r. a -.me
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180 Clawson, Samuel R. "Is Transportation Obsolete," paper to the
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186 CSG. Communications Study Group; Interim Report Jvly 1971,
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187 CSG. Experimental Research Team; October 1970 to January
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b) y/70315/CH Risk Taking in Decision Kaldng.
c) IJ/70333/CH Data Collection; from category systems to
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d) U/7IO33/SH Bargaining and Negotiating: an exploratory
study.
e) W/7IO26/CH Risk Taking: a preliminary experiment.
f) P/7IOUO/CH The acceptability of telecommunications
equipment .
g) 1J/710U2/DV Design for a complex problem solving task.
188 CSG. Experimental Research Team: February 1971 to liay 1971,
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a) C/7II69/CH A review of past, present and planned uork.
b) C/7III47/CH Report of a working visit to Bell Labora-
tories, U.S.A.
c) IJ/7II32/CH Progress in current e.^eilments: 1. Risk
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d) VJ/7IIU0/SH Intermedia differences in Corpetitive social
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169 C3G. Support Research Tear.; OctobQr 1^7 Z to Jaraisr-/ l^'H.,
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b) C/7IOUI/CL InterpersomJ. tel 9 cornuni cations and organ-
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192 Filani, Michael 0. Substitutability of CcrrnjLnicaticns for
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193 Goldhamer, Herbert and Ronald '.'estrajn, eds. "The Social
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19li Harkness, Richard C. ''Communications Substitutes for Intra-
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197 Hult, Jolm L. "Communication Satellites and their Possible
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196 Lape, William A. "The Home Office of the Future," Journal
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199 Lenz, PtPlph C. "An Exercise in Trend Extrapolation^ Compar-
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200 Lenz, Ralph C. Fiindamentals in Tecl-inologlcal Forecasting,
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201 ilcICinley, Ernest and Large, Inc. Rate Competition between
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202 Hartelly, Hicole. "Transport and Communications in the City,"
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203 Memriiott, F.I'. "The Substitutability of Communications for
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205 Mitchell, iJ. Carl. On the Substitutability of Telecommuni-
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206 liOlnar, Julius P. "Picturephone Service - A New VJay of Com-
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207 Reid, Alex. Telecommunication Studies, Annotated References;
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208 Reid, Alex. Communications Studies— A New /.rea of Inter-
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209 Iteid, ;Jex. Electronic Person-to-Persor. Gormjmicatlona, C3G,
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c) Person/person teleconnunic&tion:: : prctabl
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210 Reid, Alex and David Prichard. The Costs of Travel and Tele-
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211 Reid, Alex. Support Research Tean; February 1971 to ]\&y
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212 Reid, Alex. Needs, Technology Sffectiveness, and L^-pact, C5G,
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213 Rivers and Schrann. Responsibility in llass Ccrrr.,.-.! cation.
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215 Shapiro, Paul S. Coininuni cations or Transport: Decision Mak-
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216 "Telemart: a big hand for the little lad:.-.' Kat^^rial Handl-
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217 VJestrun, R.ii. '.- Study of Tradeoffs between Electronic Cor.-
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218 V/etmore, \,'arren. "Boeing Iletvorks Cuts Apollo i."ork Costs,"
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219 Wilmoth, David. "Coiranunication and Urban Structure," Discus-
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220 Young, Gifford. "Commuter—Stay Home! " AIM. Paper No. 71-U90.
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7 Lynch, Kevin and Lloyd Rodtdn. "A Theory of Urban Form,"
Journal of American Institute of Planners, Vol. 2ii, No. Ii,
November 195^, pp. 201-211;.
8 IJhyte, J.S. "The Impact of Telecommunications on Toirm Plan-
ning," British Post Office, 1970, 3 p.
9 TAH.ngo, London. Cities and Space; The Future Use of Urban
Land, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1963, 261 p.
10 Wise, iirnold. "The Impact of Electronic Commuixications on
Metropolitan Form," Skistics, July 1971, pp. 22-31.
URBAN, MSI.J TOIMS (UN)
11 Ogilvy, Audrey. "The Self-contained New Toxm: Employment
and Population," Toim-Planning Review, Vol, 39, April
1968, pp. 38-5ii.
66. CPL Sxchanee BLtliogr^hy #285
unu/ji PLygrtHiiG (up)
12 Cripps, Z.L. and D.H.3, Foot. "A Land-Use l.odel for 5ub-
•legional Planning," r.et'^onal otudies. Vol. 3, 1565, pp.
2U3-268.
13 liiUman, Judy. Planning for London, Penguin Books, Inc.,
Baltimore, 1971, 150 p.
Ih Lichfield, N. "Cost BeneUt Analysis in Urban Expansion — A
Case Study: Peterborough," 2e^om.l Science, Vol. 2,
1905, pp. 123-155.
15 McLoughlin, J . Brian. Urban and ?.egional Planrin;;; A Sys-
tems /.pp roach, Faber a^id Faber, London, 15'^5, 331 p.
COUIICIL CF PLjiinilNG LlbTU-RlL-rz Zxchange Bibliography ,^^265
COIIMUIIICATIOH IirNOVATIOIIS, URBAiI FOi^: AlID TRAVa> DZiuJ^
Additional copies available from:
Council of Planning Librarians
Post Office Box 229
lionticello, Illinois 61C56
for: $6.50
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